Small Numbers Breed Volatility

Contract activity for the week of October 5 - 11, 2025 in the Virginia Countryside and West Virginia Panhandle area was up 5.8% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways

• The DC region’s most rural areas – the Virginia Countryside and the West Virginia Panhandle - typically have less than 200 newly ratified contracts combined on a weekly basis. This is true even in the most active times of the year.
• Because of these relatively small numbers, a small change up or down means big percentage changes, and that was particularly evident last week.
• The Countryside (Shenandoah, Fauquier, Warren, Clarke and Frederick Counties and Winchester City) had just under 100 new contracts last week – but that translated into a 36.1% increase. On the other hand, the West Virginia Panhandle (Morgan, Jefferson and Berkeley Counties) had over 80 contracts – and that was a 16.2% decrease.

Why It Matters

• Despite the week-to-week volatility, these markets have shown overall consistency. The Countryside market has been in the modestly positive range all year, and is up 4.9% year-to-date. And the Panhandle has been modestly down all year, and is down 4.4% year-to-date.

The Real Estate Details

• Virginia Countryside was up 36.1%, and is up 4.9% year-to-date.
• West Virginia Panhandle was down 16.2% and is down 4.4% year-to-date.